Now a day’s TV channels are busy in conducting discussions related
to 2014 Lok Sabha Poll, though elections will be held after seven months. Sometimes
it seems that TV anchors are more worried on the strategies to be adopted by
various political parties rather than the political parties themselves. Curiously
enough political pundits are over emphasizing the role of Narender Modi in next
general elections. They are forgetting that out of 28 states BJP is ruling only
in 4 states ie; Gujarat, Goa, Madhya Pradesh & Chattisgarh. Madhya Pradesh
& Chattisgarh are going to assembly elections in late 2013. It would be
very difficult for BJP to overcome anti incumbency factor in assembly elections
as ground reports are being talked in power circles. Media though as yet has
been able to make the Lok Sabha elections as Modi versus Rahul Gandhi. Ground
realities are different if we look into the 2009 results in the states of Andhra
Pardesh, Arunachal Pardesh, Haryana J&K. Kerala,Manipur Meghalaya, Odisha,
Tamilnadu & west Bengal. These 10 states bring 185 members for Lok Sabha.
In these states BJP got only 1 seat, Congress got 82 seats & remaining 102
seats were got by the state regional parties.
In
is also interesting fact that Assam, Bihar, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Maharashtra,
Punjab & UP where-from 237 members reach Lok Sabha; BJP got 63 seats &
Congress 62 & remaining 112 seats were distributed among their allies or
regional parties. In these states both the national parties are pitted against
regional parties.
Gujarat,
Madhya Pardesh, Chattisgarh Goa, Himachal Pardesh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand &
in Delhi, BJP & Congress has direct fight. Out of 108 seats, BJP got 49;
Congress 58 & 1 independent in 2009.
In my opinion it
is not a fight between Modi and Rahul Gandhi, but between Congress on one side
and Modi plus regional parties on the other side.
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