2014 Lok Sabha Elections: Congress versus Modi & regional parties

Now a day’s TV channels are busy in conducting discussions related to 2014 Lok Sabha Poll, though elections will be held after seven months. Sometimes it seems that TV anchors are more worried on the strategies to be adopted by various political parties rather than the political parties themselves. Curiously enough political pundits are over emphasizing the role of Narender Modi in next general elections. They are forgetting that out of 28 states BJP is ruling only in 4 states ie; Gujarat, Goa, Madhya Pradesh & Chattisgarh. Madhya Pradesh & Chattisgarh are going to assembly elections in late 2013. It would be very difficult for BJP to overcome anti incumbency factor in assembly elections as ground reports are being talked in power circles. Media though as yet has been able to make the Lok Sabha elections as Modi versus Rahul Gandhi. Ground realities are different if we look into the 2009 results in the states of Andhra Pardesh, Arunachal Pardesh, Haryana J&K. Kerala,Manipur Meghalaya, Odisha, Tamilnadu & west Bengal. These 10 states bring 185 members for Lok Sabha. In these states BJP got only 1 seat, Congress got 82 seats & remaining 102 seats were got by the state regional parties.

In is also interesting fact that Assam, Bihar, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Punjab & UP where-from 237 members reach Lok Sabha; BJP got 63 seats & Congress 62 & remaining 112 seats were distributed among their allies or regional parties. In these states both the national parties are pitted against regional parties.

Gujarat, Madhya Pardesh, Chattisgarh Goa, Himachal Pardesh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand & in Delhi, BJP & Congress has direct fight. Out of 108 seats, BJP got 49; Congress 58 & 1 independent in 2009.

In my opinion it is not a fight between Modi and Rahul Gandhi, but between Congress on one side and Modi plus regional parties on the other side.

Democracy & NOTA

There has been much debate & analysis on the recent judgement of Supreme Court of India on providing “None of the above” (NOTA) option in every constituency whenever elections are held for electing candidates for assemblies, Parliament or any other elected bodies. Intellectuals & some civil societies have described it as next step to “Right to reject” as demanded by them for quite some time. Some describe it as a measure to enable voters to elect a perfect candidate as their representative from their constituency.

 Democracy in India means winning the elections and it doesn't include loosing the elections. All exercise is done to see a political party or coalition forming cabinet at centre or in states. An Individual Legislature elected by the voters from a particular constituency means nothing in Democracy. Voters may press "NOTA" button in any constituency to show their anguish against political system in India, in their respective constituencies. But elections in India are fought not by individuals but by Symbols. People are advised to press one or the other symbol in any election. Youngsters are being requested to enrol themselves as voters from their constituencies. ECI & some organizations asked people to vote to elect their Government but not their representatives as Law Makers. ECI must educate people regarding the power & duties of the members for which it is holding elections.

 People in any constituency know beforehand how many symbols are popular in their constituency.

 Delhi elections were not declared even when a ‘New Political party ‘declared its intention to fight elections in Delhi. Two symbols were already known to people as competitors, namely HAND & LOTUS, as soon as ECI allotted "Broom" symbol to AAP, the party popularized the symbol for the knowledge of the prospective voters. People are being told by media & the parties that there is fight between those three symbols in Delhi. Poll surveys are being conducted to project one or other party as winner in the 5 states for which elections have been announced. The surveys are being conducted even when nominations papers have not been filed.

 BJP has declared its Prime Ministerial Candidate even when elections are 7 months away to elect the members of 16th Lok Sabha. Campaign has been started to popularize the candidate. Rallies are being organized to consolidate votes though no notification for conducting elections has been issued by the ECI. TV debates are being held on day to basis for his candidature & claim on the post of PM of India though there is no direct election for the post of PM in India. PM can be selected by any party/coalition if it musters the support of 273 MPs elected from 273 Lok Sabha constituencies spread across all over India. Will voters be electing a right candidate from their constituency or head of the Union Cabinet? If voters are being asked to elect a PM rather than their representative MP from their Lok Sabha constituency, then why they demanded NOTA. There will not be a "PM" button like a "NOTA" button in the EVM machines. Intellectuals demanding "NOTA" or "PM", voters have to decide. Democracy can't be defined on the version of SC order. NOTA has no value in Indian Democracy, everybody will come to know after the elections of 5 states are held. Take my words as granted we don't elect candidates from our constituencies but SYMBOLS.

Pardeep K. Gupta